Quarterback Fantasy Football Draft Strategy For 2026: Jalen Hurts Headlines Priority Targets
Fantasy

Quarterback Fantasy Football Draft Strategy For 2026: Jalen Hurts Headlines Priority Targets

Dwain McFarland goes in-depth through his QB positional draft strategy for 2026 fantasy football drafts, identifying traits to target in league-winning QBs, high-priority targets and site-specific ADP values.

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A strong quarterback draft strategy for fantasy football starts with four questions:

  1. League-winning criteria: What does this position need to deliver to provide a meaningful edge? 
     
  2. Supply and demand: How many do I need, and how many are available? Scoring and starting requirements matter more than most managers realize.
     
  3. Value: Can I find similarly valuable players later? When the answer is yes, that position becomes a candidate to fade early.
     
  4. Draft capital: How much have I already invested? Spending heavily early usually means investing less later, and vice versa.

Use these principles alongside our fantasy football rankings, customized for your scoring and roster settings, to build an adaptable approach. Then use fantasy football ADP data to identify the positions worth attacking early and the ones where you can wait.

Today, we’ll apply that framework to the 2026 QB landscape.

Numbers 2 through 4 will come into play throughout this article. But first, we need to establish what a league-winning quarterback looks like.

QB Draft Strategy For Fantasy Football 2026

How Many Points Do League-Winning QBs Score?

The baseline is simple: target 20-plus PPG—regardless of when you draft your quarterback.

Over the past five seasons, 17 of the 20 QBs rostered on at least 50% of ESPN playoff teams averaged 20 or more PPG. The table below shows how those league-winning QBs performed relative to their ADP draft round.

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The totals add up to 19 rather than 20 because C.J. Stroud averaged 18.7 PPG in 2023 and went undrafted in most leagues.

20+ PPG is the general target, but the bar rises for early-round QBs. Nearly every league winner drafted in the first six rounds averaged at least 21 PPG.

You can win with a lower-scoring QB, but ceiling outcomes are what create a true weekly advantage.

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What Types of QBs Are Most Likely To Become League Winners?

Most league-winning QBs are dual threats, averaging at least 5.5 rushing PPG through designed runs and scrambles.

Balanced QBs are the next-best archetype. They do less damage on designed runs but bring enough scrambling upside to complement strong passing seasons. Pocket passers who contribute something on the ground rank third, while statue QBs rarely offer league-breaking outcomes.

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I also evaluated the data through wins above replacement (WAR), which is driven primarily by PPG.

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Of the 28 QBs who added at least one win to fantasy teams, 50% were dual threats. Balanced QBs again ranked second, followed by pocket passers and just one statue QB: Matthew Stafford in 2025. Stafford averaged 20.6 PPG but did not reach the 50% ESPN playoff-roster threshold.

Here’s how to approach each archetype.

Dual-Threats

  • Dual-threat QBs offer the most paths to a spike season: passing, rushing or both.
  • The best options command 35% to 50% of their team’s carries inside the five-yard line, such as Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts.
  • Those without major goal-line roles usually need a spike passing season to deliver a massive ceiling outcome. Lamar Jackson’s career-high 18.9 passing PPG in 2024 is the most recent example.
  • Rushing can insulate these QBs from poor team environments, but weak passing play can still cap their ceiling or jeopardize playing time, as we have seen with Justin Fields and Anthony Richardson.

Balanced

  • Balanced QBs depend more on passing efficiency than dual threats, but rushing can turn an 18-PPG season into a 22-PPG breakout.
  • Not every mobile QB is a target. Prioritize players with strong supporting casts and favorable schemes.

Pocket

  • Pocket passers are more dependent on passing touchdowns, making their results more volatile.
  • Target good offenses that use play action and motion, with play callers who consistently keep defenses off balance—think Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan, Mike McDaniel and Ben Johnson.
  • Elite passers with multiple high-end weapons can offer value, as Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott have shown.
  • A quality passer can also spike when paired with an elite receiver and strong scheme, like Aaron Rodgers with Matt LaFleur and Davante Adams in 2020.

Statue

  • The pocket rules apply to statue QBs, but their lack of rushing makes true league-winning seasons rare—even when they post big passing numbers.
  • Jared Goff is the clearest example: you can win with this archetype, but you will likely need elite production elsewhere on your roster.

I will reference ADP from the following sites. Scoring and the number of starting WRs and flex spots are drivers of ADP.

  • Yahoo: 0.5 PPR; 2 WR + 1 FLEX
  • ESPN: PPR; 2 WR + 1 FLEX
  • Sleeper: PPR; 3 WR + 1 FLEX
  • Fantasy Life Championship on RTSports: PPR; 2 WR + 2 FLEX

Elite-Ceiling 2026 Fantasy QBs (22+ PPG)

This group of QBs offers the strongest path to 22+ PPG. But each one comes with different opportunity costs. They are ordered by consensus ADP.

When we think about supply and demand, there are only so many elite dual-threat and balanced options. We only start one QB, but the bar is set by the archetypes we covet most. There are only six QBs that meet the top-end criteria. Burrow technically could have his own tweener tier, but he just doesn't make sense in the tier below.

Waiting on QB is a viable strategy in 2026, but this tier provides value on archetypes that have historically been priced higher. Daniels and Hurts stand out as bargains because of their lower trade-off costs, making them high-priority targets—especially as you hit tier breaks at the RB-WR positions.

Note: I use archetypes and our projected range of outcomes to form each tier. Then within each tier, the players are in order of consensus ADP. We can best identify value this way.  Also, saying Hurts is a priority target doesn't mean he is better than Jackson. It just means that he is the best-priced archetype with lower trade-off costs.

BUF_bills-logo.svgJosh Allen | Bills | Dual-Threat with Inside-5 Role

No QB offers a stronger combination of floor and ceiling than Allen. Despite a steep average draft position (ADP) over the past three seasons, he has consistently delivered elite returns.

  • ADP: 21, 24, 20
  • PPG over expected vs ADP: +2.4, +2.5, +2.1 (elite)
  • Wins above replacement (WAR): 3.3, 3.6, 3.0 (elite)
  • ESPN Playoff Rostership: 62%, 58%, 58% (elite)

The Bills have shifted toward a more run-centric offense under Joe Brady, but Allen’s dominance near the goal line has offset reduced passing volume. Over the last three years, he is the No. 2 QB in attempt share inside the five-yard line (38%) and second in rushing TDs (24).

Allen also plays in an innovative scheme with Brady, and the DJ Moore trade creates room for surprise passing-game upside in 2026.

Action Plan

  • 2 WR/1 Flex: Strong target at ADP or after if you don't like the alternatives.
  • 3 WR/1-2 Flex: Prefer to wait at QB unless he falls.
  • Earliest ADP: Yahoo (20, QB1)
  • Latest ADP: Sleeper (28, QB1)
  • Fantasy Life Championship on RTSports: 33, QB1.

BAL_ravens-logo.svgLamar Jackson | Ravens | Dual-Threat

  • Season: 9 (Late Prime)
  • Fantasy PPG (23-25): 20.7, 25.3, 16.3
  • ADP: Round 3-4 Turn

Jackson dealt with multiple lower-body injuries that sapped his fantasy juice in 2025. In the three games before that, he averaged 26.9 PPG.

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Yes, that is a small sample. But this is Lamar FRIGGIN Jackson we are talking about here—he has flashed that sort of upside in the past.

  • 2019: 28.0 PPG
  • 2024: 25.3 PPG

Jackson has reached 20+ PPG in five of seven seasons and 22+ in three of seven.

The departure of Todd Monken—a fantastic schemer—leaves a question mark. But Declan Doyle comes over from the Bears, bringing the Ben Johnson playbook with him.

Action Plan

  • 2 WR/1 Flex: Viable target at the Round 3-4 turn if uncomfortable with WR-RB options.
  • 3 WR/1-2 Flex: Only if he falls past ADP or past the priority WR-RBs.
  • Earliest ADP: Yahoo (36, QB2)
  • Latest ADP: Sleeper (38, QB2)
  • Fantasy Life Championship on RTSports: 63, QB2 - Strong target.

NE_patriots-logo.svgDrake Maye | Patriots | Balanced

  • Season: 3 (Early Prime)
  • Fantasy PPG (24-25): 16.4*, 20.6 (*10 games with 75%-plus snaps)
  • ADP: Round 4-5 turn

Maye erupted in Year two, finishing as the QB2 after finishing as the QB16. He was on 53% of ESPN playoff rosters and notched a 1.6 WAR. He was elite as a passer with 259 YPG despite a lackluster receiving corps and added 26.5 YPG on the ground.

It has become increasingly rare to find QBs that can throw for 250+ YPG, and now A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs enter the picture. Maye could still regress in passing YPG and TDs per attempt (6.3%) after such a great 2025 campaign, but he is firmly in the high-upside category.

He could pass for 4,000+ yards and rush for 400+.

Action Plan

  • 2 WR/1 Flex: Viable target at ADP but not forcing it with similar cheaper QBs.
  • 3 WR/1-2 Flex: Viable target at ADP but not forcing it with similar cheaper QBs.
  • Earliest ADP: Yahoo (47, QB4)
  • Latest ADP: Sleeper (51, QB3)
  • Fantasy Life Championship on RTSports: 79, QB3

CIN_bengals-logo.svgJoe Burrow | Bengals | Pocket

  • Season: 7 (Prime)
  • Fantasy PPG (22 & 24): 21.9, 21.9 (last two healthy seasons)
  • ADP: Round 5

Burrow isn’t a dual threat like most QBs in the tier above, but a lack of rushing hasn’t stopped him from posting near-22 PPG seasons when healthy. In those campaigns, he delivered 3.0 and 3.1 WAR while beating ADP-based expectations by 2.7 and 3.3 PPG.

He has been amazingly consistent in the TD department, which is huge for a pocket passer—it is the primary reason for their volatility. With Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins in the fold, Burrow is set for another strong campaign.

Burrow makes this tier because he has proven himself over the next tier. But pocket passers are fragile bets; fewer Bengals attempts or passing-touchdown regression would hurt him more disproportionately.

Action Plan

  • 2 WR/1 Flex: Viable, but not forcing it unless tier break at RB-WR.
  • 3 WR/1-2 Flex: Don't want to use a pick in the first 4-5 rounds on Burrow.
  • Earliest ADP: Yahoo (47, QB3)—Target when he slides past ADP.
  • Latest ADP: ESPN (60, QB6)—PRIORITY TARGET.
  • Fantasy Life Championship on RTSports: 79

WAS_commanders-logo.svgJayden Daniels | Commanders | Dual-Threat

  • Season: 3 (Early Prime)
  • Fantasy PPG (24-25): 20.9, 16.3
  • ADP: Round 5

Daniels has averaged 22.3 PPG in 23 games with at least an 80% snap share. As a rookie, he showed his fantasy ceiling, posting 2.3 WAR and reaching 53% rostership in ESPN playoff leagues. He averaged 7.4 PPG just on rushing in Year 1.

This year, Daniels gains three weapons: Stefon Diggs, Chig Okonkwo and rookie Antonio Williams. He also gets a scheme change, as David Blough brings concepts from his time as a quarterback under Ben Johnson and Kevin O’Connell.

Daniels comes with more questions than Allen, but he is among the few QBs capable of passing for 4,000 passing yards and rushing for 750+ in a spike season. His opportunity costs are lower, considering the RB-WR-TE options going in his range.

Action Plan

  • 2 WR/1 Flex: PRIORITY TARGET IN ROUND 5.
  • 3 WR/1-2 Flex: PRIORITY TARGET IN ROUND 6.
  • Earliest ADP: ESPN (51, QB4)
  • Latest ADP: Sleeper (62, QB5)
  • Fantasy Life Championship on RTSports: 86, QB5  (1 pt per 20 yards passing)

PHI_eagles-logo.svgJalen Hurts | Eagles | Dual-Threat with Inside-5 Role

  • Season: 7 (Prime)
  • Fantasy PPG (23-25): 21, 21, 18.7
  • ADP: Round 5-6

Hurts ranks third in PPG over the last three seasons (20.3), but fell to a three-year low of 18.7 last year after a dip in rushing touchdowns. His scramble rate remained steady, but his share of designed attempts declined.

The Eagles remain committed to the tush push, and Hurts could benefit from Sean Mannion’s motion- and play-action-heavy scheme. A.J. Brown is gone, but the team still has DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert and added Makai Lemon in Round 1 of the NFL Draft.

Hurts can easily climb back to 21 PPG on a rushing-TD rebound. If this passing game sparks, his upside grows. Like Daniels, the trade-off costs are less than Allen/Jackson. Hurts is one of my most drafted QBs.

Action Plan

  • 2 WR/1 Flex: PRIORITY TARGET IN ROUND 5.
  • 3 WR/1-2 Flex: PRIORITY TARGET IN ROUND 6.
  • Earliest ADP: ESPN (54, QB5)
  • Latest ADP: Sleeper (67, QB6)
  • Fantasy Life Championship on RTSports: 91, QB6 - SMASH.
     

Great Ceiling 2026 Fantasy QBs (21-22 PPG)

This tier includes an influx of balanced quarterbacks and lower-confidence dual threats such as Dart and Murray. That uncertainty lowers the cost, but the ceiling remains intact. Prescott is the Burrow of this tier.

If I miss the elite ceiling options, I want to leave drafts with one of these quarterbacks. Murray stands out as the best ADP value and the top high-ceiling fallback option.

NYG_giants-logo.svgJaxson Dart | Giants | Dual-Threat

  • Season: 2 (Early Prime)
  • Fantasy PPG (2025): 19.9 (as the starter)
  • ADP: Round 8

Dart averaged nearly 20 PPG without Malik Nabers during his rookie season. He is a true dual-threat option who was also heavily involved near the goal line, handling 33% of the team’s attempts inside the five-yard line.

Matt Nagy’s play-calling is a concern, but the Giants’ offseason moves and Greg Roman’s presence on the staff suggest a scheme that could allow Dart to thrive.

Action Plan

  • Earliest ADP: ESPN (76, QB7)—Not out, but willing to wait for cheaper options in tier.
  • Latest ADP: Yahoo (82, QB10)—Strong target at ADP.
  • Fantasy Life Championship on RTSports: 118, QB11—PRIORITY TARGET.

CHI_bears-logo.svgCaleb Williams | Bears | Balanced

  • Season: 3 (Early Prime)
  • Fantasy PPG (24-25): 15, 18.6
  • ADP: Rounds 6-8

Williams is a balanced QB with a similar range of outcomes to Maye, yet he goes 20 to 40 picks later, depending on the site. He also plays in a strong scheme with a talented trio of young weapons: Colston Loveland, Luther Burden and Rome Odunze.

Action Plan

  • Earliest ADP: Yahoo (70, QB8)—Not out, but willing to wait for cheaper options in tier.
  • Latest ADP: ESPN (93, QB11)—PRIORITY TARGET.
  • Fantasy Life Championship on RTSports: 100, QB8—Solid target.

DAL_cowboys-logo.svgDak Prescott | Cowboys | Pocket

  • Season: 11 (Post-Prime)
  • Fantasy PPG (23 & 25): 20.2, 18.5
  • ADP: Round 6-8

Prescott is a pocket passer at this point in his career, but he has two great passing-game weapons in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. And Brian Schottenheimer's scheme was a plus operation last season. This is the formula for a pocket passer like Prescott, who has a 20+ PPG on his resume from 2023, to provide fantasy goodness.

Prescott is a similar bet to Joe Burrow at a discount.

Action Plan

  • Earliest ADP: Yahoo (76, QB9)—viable target when he slides, but fine waiting.
  • Latest ADP: Sleeper (90, QB8)—viable target when he slides, but fine waiting.
  • Fantasy Life Championship on RTSports: 110, QB10. Solid target.

LAC_chargers-logo.svgJustin Herbert | Chargers | Balanced

  • Season: 7 (Prime)
  • Fantasy PPG (23-25): 17.9, 16.7, 17.9
  • ADP: Rounds 7-9

Herbert hasn’t posted an elite fantasy season in a while, but he receives a massive upgrade with Mike McDaniel arriving. Tua Tagovailoa posted 8.9- and 9.3-YPA seasons in McDaniel’s scheme before the Dolphins’ offense collapsed. We have also seen similar results from quarterbacks such as Brock Purdy in this offensive system.

The Chargers have multiple passing-game weapons, and their offensive line is healthy. Herbert is not heavily involved in the designed run game, but he adds value as a scrambler. He averaged 31.1 rushing YPG last season and has topped 3.0 rushing PPG three times.

Action Plan

JAC_jaguars-logo.svgTrevor Lawrence | Jaguars | Balanced

  • Season: 6 (Prime)
  • Fantasy PPG (23-25): 16.4, 14.5, 19.9
  • ADP: Round 8

Lawrence posted a career-high QB5 finish in his first season with Liam Coen, a system that maximized both his arm and legs. The former No. 1 overall pick averaged 5.3 rushing PPG and handled 29% of the team’s carries inside the five-yard line.

Lawrence has only one strong QB1 season, so regression remains a concern. Still, Coen helped Baker Mayfield post a career-best 21.5 PPG in 2024, including a career-high 3.3 rushing PPG.

With a deep group of weapons, an excellent scheme, and goal-line touchdown upside, Lawrence offers plenty to like.

Action Plan

MIN_vikings-logo.svgKyler Murray | Vikings | Dual-Threat

  • Season: 8 (Late Prime)
  • Fantasy PPG (23-25): 18.3, 17.5, 15.6
  • ADP: Round 10+

Murray’s ADP will likely rise following the announcement that he is the starter. Still, enough drafters remain skeptical that he could offer value throughout the preseason.

He finished QB9 in PPG in 2023 and QB12 in 2024. Over the past three seasons, Murray has averaged 5.0 rushing PPG and 33 rushing YPG.

He has not lived up to his billing as the No. 1 overall pick, but he remains a dual-threat QB now paired with Kevin O’Connell, Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Historically, O’Connell has found significant success with nearly every passer not named J.J. McCarthy.

Let's recap:

  • Great Scheme ✅
  • Great Weapons ✅
  • Dual-Threat ✅
  • Change of Scenery ✅
  • QB9 & QB12 in worse offenses in his last two full seasons (nice floor) ✅

This is your late-round QB target for 2026. Could it go wrong? Yes. But that's okay. We can find 16-17 PPG QBs off the waiver wire. Finding players with 21-22 PPG upside is rare.

Action Plan

  • Earliest ADP: Yahoo (~111 will climb, QB16)—HIGH-PRIORITY TARGET.
  • Latest ADP: ESPN (~150 will climb, QB18)—HIGH-PRIORITY TARGET.
  • Fantasy Life Championship on RTSports: ~149, QB17—HIGH-PRIORITY TARGET.

Good Ceiling 2026 Fantasy QBs (20-21 PPG)

DEN_broncos-logo.svgBo Nix | Broncos | Balanced

  • Season: 3 (Early Prime)
  • Fantasy PPG (23-25): 18.6, 17.9
  • ADP: Round 8-9 

Nix hasn't popped in a big way as a passer yet, but the Dolphins traded a Round 1 pick for Jaylen Waddle, which could unlock a higher ceiling. The third-year QB has averaged 3.9 PPG rushing, which would be a nice pairing with a spike passing campaign.

Nix is practicing without mobility constraints after suffering a fractured right ankle in the AFC Divisional Round.

Action Plan

SF_49ers-logo.svgBrock Purdy | 49ers | Balanced

  • Season: 5 (Prime)
  • Fantasy PPG (23-25): 18.5, 17.8, 19.7
  • ADP: Round 9

Purdy is the QB6 over the last three seasons with 18.5 PPG. He plays in a great scheme under Kyle Shanahan, and the team upgraded weapons this offseason, adding Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel and drafting De'Zhaun Stribling. George Kittle also has a chance to return by Week 1. But the age of all his top weapons, including Christian McCaffrey, makes his offense a bit more fragile.

The Year 5 QB has become affluent in maximizing his mobility over the last two years with 4.2 and 3.6 PPG rushing—catapulting him into the balanced tier.

Purdy is one of the better values on the board in drafts across multiple sites.

Action Plan

KC_chiefs-logo.svgPatrick Mahomes | Chiefs | Balanced

  • Season: 10 (Post-Prime)
  • Fantasy PPG (23-25): 17.5, 17.6, 20.3
  • ADP: Round 9

Mahomes juiced his 2025 PPG with a career-high 5.2 PPG rushing. Now he is coming off of an ACL, which puts his scrambling ability in question—at least early in the season. His passing YPG has remained strong, but the TDs have evaporated in the newest iteration of the Chiefs' attack.

Rashee Rice is a good underneath option, but Travis Kelce is aging, and the team needs more explosive play from their WRs. For Mahomes to boom, Xavier Worthy or perhaps Cyrus Allen must take a step forward. 

Action Plan

Average Ceiling 2026 Fantasy QBs (19-20 PPG)

  • Matthew Stafford | Rams | Statue: Has the scheme and weapons to spike for 20+ PPG, as we saw last year, but due for TD regression and adds zero on the ground. Fade on ESPN (79); in play on Yahoo (100), Sleeper (115) and RTSports (133).
     
  • Jared Goff | Lions | Statue: Fantastic weapons and has scored 18.2 and 17.8 PPG the last two seasons. But a zero on the ground, which makes it hard to become a league-breaking option. His WAR of -0.4, 0.6 and -0.1 demonstrates that. Viable option in a 2-QB build to pair with a player like Murray. Priced better than Stafford. ESPN (139); Sleeper (122); Yahoo (115); RTSports (135).
     
  • Baker Mayfield | Buccaneers | Balanced: Scored 21.5 PPG in 2024 and averaged 19.4 PPG over the first six games of 2025 before a plethora of injuries hit. Has evolved as a rusher, adding 3.2 and 2.6 PPG over the last two years. Mike Evans is gone, which could cap his passing TD upside, but he has a new coordinator in Zac Robinson (lots of motion), who could unlock more from Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin.
     
  • Jordan Love | Packers | Pocket: The type of scheme where we get big-boom spikes, and the offense should consolidate around their best playmakers: Tucker Kraft, Christian Watson and Jayden Reed. Maybe Matthew Golden rebounds too.
     
  • Malik Willis | Titans | Dual-Threat: Could boom thanks to his legs if things are even below-average in the passing department. But that is a pretty big concern. The Dolphins might not have a WR who could be the No. 3 or No. 4 option on most NFL teams.
     
  • Tyler Shough | Saints | Balanced: Solid as a starter with 17.2 PPG in nine starts as a rookie and added 3.3 PPG on the ground. Heading into Year 2, the team added Jordyn Tyson in Round 1 of the NFL Draft.

It Could Happen Fantasy QBs – Waiver Wire Watch (18-19 PPG)

  • Sam Darnold | Seahawks | Pocket: Brian Fleury will try to keep Klint Kubiak's scheme rolling after learning from Kyle Shanahan.
     
  • C.J. Stroud | Texans | Pocket: Nick Caley will attempt to make the offense look more like McVay in Year 2.
     
  • Daniel Jones | Colts | Balanced: Shane Steichen is a great schemer, but Jones has been inconsistent, and his upside as a rusher could be capped early in the season coming off the Achilles injury.
     
  • Cam Ward | Titans | Pocket: Year 2 bet with improved weapons in Carnell Tate and Wan'Dale Robinson.

Quarterback Draft Capital Guidelines

  • If you secured one of the top-tier QBs, you should rarely draft another. There are exceptions, like late picks in 20-round drafts or if you can trade. However, you must know your leaguemates; making exceptions is an easy way to damage your team—especially in the early and middle rounds.
  • If you secured your QB1 in Round 9 or later, drafting two can make sense, but it depends on how often other managers draft two QBs and the size of your league. The later you wait, the better idea drafting two becomes.
  • Note: If you are playing in a best ball or superflex format, these rules don't apply. The QBs will go earlier in drafts, and you must have at least two or sometimes more. Be sure to check out our superflex settings in the rankings tools.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Josh Allen
    JoshAllenQ
    QBBUFBUF
    PPG
    23.2
    Proj
    365.5
  2. Jalen Hurts
    JalenHurts
    QBPHIPHI
    PPG
    18.2
    Proj
    312.4
  3. Jayden Daniels
    JaydenDanielsQ
    QBWASWAS
    PPG
    16.2
    Proj
    318.0
  4. Kyler Murray
    KylerMurray
    QBMINMIN
    PPG
    16.2
    Proj
    303.1

Published Updated